Thursday 9 August 2012

40 million more TB deaths due to smoking by 2050



One of the Millennium Developments Goals of the United Nations is to reduce TB mortality by half between 1999 and 2015. But as we are fast approaching this deadline and there is a serious threat of not being able to meet the target.

The reason - Smoking

A research study using a mathematical model to determine the effect of smoking on future TB cases found that there will 40 million excess deaths worldwide between 2010 and 2050. 

The research, conducted by the University of California under the leadership of Dr. Sanjay Basu, also concluded that if current smoking trends continue, the number of excess TB cases could rise 256 to 274 million – 18 million new cases in total.

That smoking is a major risk factor for this infectious disease is widely established. According to World Health Organisation, nearly 61 per cent of TB deaths are attributable to smoking. 

Smoking increases the risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, the risk of progression from infection to disease, and the risk of death among TB patients. Passive smoking also accelerates the development of TB. 

India has the highest burden of Tuberculosis (TB) in the world and accounts for 21 per cent of the global incidence. An estimated 2 million cases strike India annually. 

Equally worrisome is the fact that 8.7 per cent of adult population in India use smoking tobacco; another 5.3 per cent use smoking in conjunction with smokeless tobacco.

The prevalence rate of TB for 1000 population in Kerala was 0.52. Nearly 13.4 per cent of adults in the state use smoking tobacco products. 

Original research published in British Medical Journal

Image courtesy: http://sitemaker.umich.edu/medchem13/files/tb.htm

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